On Oct. 25, Madagascar’s elite military unit CAPSAT (Army Corps of Personnel and Administrative and Technical Services) launched a coup after a month of violent protests against President Andry Rajoelina’s government over alleged corruption and failures to provide basic public services, including running water, to vast parts of the country. This is the latest in a series of coups across Africa since 2020, reflecting widespread public frustration with governments that have failed to improve economic and security conditions. Militaries have often used this discontent to justify forcibly taking power, promising sweeping reforms and a later return to democratic rule. In practice, those promises have rarely been fulfilled.
There were several efforts to ensure a civilian-led transition to democracy after the military overthrew former President Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, following mass and sustained protests against his government. However, power struggles between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) prevented crucial transition milestones, including integrating the country’s rival security institutions. These divisions eventually erupted into open conflict in April 2023, leading to a civil war that has produced one of the world’s worst ongoing humanitarian crises.
A similar pattern has unfolded in the semi-arid Sahel region between the Sahara and coastal West Africa, a hotspot of Islamist militant activity. Military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger since August 2020 were justified on the grounds of improving security and promoting economic growth. Instead, militant groups have made territorial gains, while none of the three countries has announced plans for elections. At the same time, their governments have curtailed press freedoms and restricted NGOs focused on poverty reduction.
These outcomes exemplify the “drifting coup.” In this phenomenon, militaries seize power while pledging civilian transitions or at least a rapid return to democracy, along with improvements to state capacity, public services, and national security. Without carefully planned transitions, meaningful civil society input, and civilian oversight of the military, these juntas frequently abandon their commitments and seek to entrench their authority. They often issue decrees delaying elections, arguing that they need more time to meet their stated goals. Such decrees are sometimes enacted into law, limiting press freedom and suppressing civil society criticism.
Militaries also act with impunity because consequences are limited. Between 1991 and roughly 2020, many countries, led by Western governments, were willing and able to coordinate punitive measures against coup leaders through sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and even threats of military intervention. For instance, the sanctions imposed on al-Bashir during the 2003–05 Darfur genocide were maintained for years, frustrating civilians and contributing significantly to the protests that helped force his resignation in 2018.
Since 2020, however, global attention has shifted due to increasing political instability and conflicts around the world. As a result, neither Western nations nor influential powers such as China have focused consistently on these African crises. In some cases, countries including the UAE, Qatar, and Iran have been accused of funding different sides in the Sudanese conflict, further complicating international responses. This lack of sustained pressure, and in some cases direct support for military factions, has emboldened armed forces across the continent to seize and retain power with few repercussions.
As Madagascar enters its transitional period, it must be cautious not to fall into this pattern. Early signs are concerning. Coup leader and now-President Michael Randrianirina announced an 18- to 24-month transition period instead of following the constitutional requirement to hold an election within 60 days of a presidential vacancy. While Randrianirina appointed 25 civilians to his 29-member transitional cabinet, he named Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo, a former business aide to Rajoelina, as prime minister. Randrianirina argued that Rajaonarivelo’s international profile could help Madagascar secure foreign support, but including a figure closely tied to the previous administration raises concerns that protesters’ demands will remain unaddressed. If grievances continue to grow, the military government could itself become vulnerable to further unrest or another forcible takeover.
The Madagascar coup demonstrates that forcible military takeovers remain a persistent threat and that militaries across the continent are increasingly unwilling to relinquish power. To address this, regional organizations and their global partners must hold these regimes accountable and push for rapid transitions to civilian governance. Multilateral bodies such as the G20 and the United Nations should create a clear framework for responding to coups and military-led governments. This framework should include broad guidelines for transition timelines and cabinet composition, along with commitments from member states to take coordinated punitive action if militaries violate these principles or use extrajudicial measures to alter constitutions in ways that expand their power.
Even in today’s fractured geopolitical environment, political stability and legitimate governance are widely valued. Slowing the spread of the drifting coup phenomenon is essential. If regional organizations and partner governments commit to firm, collective measures, militaries may think twice before launching coups, or at the very least may ensure inclusive and timely transitions to civilian rule.
Edited by: Krithiga Narayanan