On Tuesday, Nov. 11, Iraq held its sixth parliamentary election since the U.S.-led invasion of 2003. While expectations for sweeping domestic reform remain modest, this election could prove pivotal in shaping Baghdad’s future stance toward the U.S. military presence and Iraq’s mediation between Washington and Tehran. Turnout surprised many observers, with more than 55% of the country’s more than 20 million eligible Iraqis casting ballots, which was a marked rise from the previous low. Voters chose between incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, coalitions led by parliamentary speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhani, and the main Kurdish bloc representing the northern region, among others.
Prime Minister al-Sudani emerged as the central figure, securing a second term after consolidating a new political base through the Reconstruction and Development Alliance. His bloc, an ambitious coalition of technocrats, moderate Shiite leaders, and independents, was formed specifically to contest this election and build on his pragmatic, results-oriented governance. Al-Sudani aimed to distinguish himself from Iraq’s polarized establishment by presenting himself as a steady hand capable of bridging sectarian divides, managing elite rivalries, and balancing relations with Washington and Tehran during a period of shifting political dynamics.
Iraq’s Political Outlook
Strained intra-party relations, driven largely by accusations of election interference, defined this cycle. Muqtada al-Sadr, a veteran cleric and political figure, called for a boycott of the election and alleged widespread corruption among Iraq’s political elite. His withdrawal left a major void in Shiite street mobilization and forced remaining factions to recalibrate alliances. This intensified competition between al-Sudani’s coalition and leading Coordination Framework figures such as Nouri al-Maliki and Hadi al-Ameri.
Tensions were also visible among Sunni and Kurdish parties. The Taqaddum Party lost support among Sunnis, while rival groups in the Kurdistan region deepened divisions in the north. These fractures will create significant challenges for forming a governing coalition.
Al-Sudani’s reelection strengthened his coalition and gave him renewed leverage to reinforce technocratic governance and moderate national policies. However, his success will complicate negotiations with militia-linked parties and powerful Coordination Framework figures who are intent on preserving influence over Iraq’s parliamentary system and its foreign policy direction.
Implications for U.S.–Iran Relations
The most significant foreign policy challenge for the new Iraqi government will be managing relations with Iran, which has played an outsized role in Iraqi politics since the fall of Saddam Hussein, and the United States, which recently reversed plans for a full troop withdrawal and will retain a small presence to address the remaining ISIS threat.
During the war against ISIS, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps helped develop and support Shiite militias that became the Popular Mobilization Forces. While ISIS has largely been defeated, these groups remain active, politically influential, and partially integrated into the Iraqi state. Some factions have carried out attacks on U.S. forces, prompting U.S. retaliation, including the 2020 strike in Iraq that killed IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani. Iraq therefore remains a volatile space where U.S. and Iranian-aligned forces operate in close proximity.
Al-Sudani has tried to balance relations with both Iran and the United States. His approach helped Iraq avoid direct involvement in the 2025 Iran-Israel War. However, this balancing may become more difficult. The Trump administration has taken a hard line on disarming the PMF, especially Kata’ib Hezbollah. Al-Sudani removed some of its commanders after clashes in Baghdad, and Washington opposes legislation that would integrate the PMF into the Iraqi Army. The PMF has stated that it will not disarm until all U.S. troops leave Iraq. Iran also seeks to preserve these militias, which have become one of the last intact elements of its regional proxy network after extensive Israeli strikes.
Al-Sudani’s victory suggests that his balancing strategy will continue, even as regional tensions rise and pressure from both sides intensifies.
Broader Political and Regional Stakes
Al-Sudani’s win indicates at least conditional approval from the Shiite Coordination Framework for his pragmatic, diplomatic strategy. His next challenge will be building a governing coalition. Iraq’s muhasasa system, which informally allocates the presidency to a Kurd, the prime ministership to a Shiite, and the speakership to a Sunni, often creates gridlock and makes effective governance difficult.
Even so, his victory validates his nationalist, technocratic approach and his efforts to balance relations with the United States and Iran while addressing domestic challenges such as the economy and ongoing drought. Neither Washington nor Tehran has objected to his rule. However, internal divisions within the Shiite bloc, combined with his previous statement that he would not seek another term, may complicate efforts to form a government.
Al-Sudani’s election win has strengthened his vision for a more stable, prosperous, and neutral Iraq. However, rising tensions between Washington and Tehran, a fragile Shiite coalition, and the continued presence of both Iran-backed militias and U.S. troops mean that the most difficult phase of his leadership is likely still ahead.
Edited by: Krithiga Narayanan