“Iran’s former Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is dead.” These words, spoken by U.S. President Trump shortly after the beginning of the U.S./Israeli war against Iran, were words many Iranians had waited decades to hear. Khamenei had ruled Iran brutally for the past 36 of the 46 years the regime had been in power.
He presided over a regime that slowly lost legitimacy due to economic mismanagement and waves of violent crackdowns in response to internal dissent, including the largest one in January 2026, which killed an estimated 36,000 Iranian civilians. Over the course of the regime’s rule, hundreds of thousands of Iranians fled the country, and many now live in the United States. While the diaspora is divided on the justification and merits of this war, the initial reaction to Khamenei’s death was jubilation.
On the night of Feb. 28, hundreds of Iranians marched in the streets of D.C. in celebration, chanting slogans such as “Thank you, Trump” and “USA,” and culminating in a party outside the de facto Iranian Embassy. At the rally, many people expressed deep excitement and praise and believed that Khamenei’s death could open the door to the regime’s collapse.
While the regime has lost internal legitimacy and much of its upper leadership, its fall is not a foregone conclusion, as the security forces, particularly the ideological Revolutionary Guards, maintain a tight grip on the country. What will ultimately be the deciding factor in whether the regime collapses or not is the loyalties of the much larger regular conscript army, which has shown signs of unease but has not yet shown the mass defections needed for regime change.
I sat down with an Iranian dissident (who spoke under the condition of anonymity) to discuss the reaction and the broader situation. They mentioned that this reaction is understandable given the sheer brutality of Khamenei’s role and the fact that many Iranians who live in the diaspora fled specifically because they were the victims of it. They also cautioned, however, that reactions inside Iran are more mixed between the many opponents and supporters of Khamenei. They also mentioned that some opponents of Khamenei in Iran may welcome his death but disagreed with his killing through foreign intervention and not through the agency of Iranians.
They said that they had heard from many Iranians who wanted to celebrate Khamenei’s death but were worried about the future, given that the country was now at war. They expected public opinion to evolve as the war continued.
The war has also elicited strong reactions from Americans who are skeptical of foreign interventions. On March 7, competing demonstrations were held in front of the White House, separated by a line of police. One, primarily composed of Iranian Americans, flew American, Israeli, and pre-1979 Iranian flags (the de facto symbol of the Iranian opposition), and the other, with an unclear makeup, flew Palestinian and Iranian government flags.
The dissident said that the broader context of the war often overshadows the legitimate grievances of Iranians against their government and that the proper position is to hold two truths at once: this intervention is not being done with a human rights agenda and may lead to greater suffering, but the trauma experienced by Iranians that led many to support it should not be dismissed or discredited.
Ultimately, they worried that if the regime survives the war, it will embark on an even more brutal campaign of internal suppression and pointed to the mass executions carried out in 1988 following the end of the Iran-Iraq War. Ultimately, they said they are pessimistic that this war will result in greater political openness in Iran, but that it’s hard to forecast the outcome of this unprecedented moment.
Meanwhile, as the war has continued, some members of the Iranian opposition have become wary of U.S. and Israeli war goals. On March 22, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the most prominent opposition figure, called on the U.S. and Israel to avoid hitting civilian and energy infrastructure and focus on military targets only. Airstrikes on oil depots in Tehran in early March sent a cloud of toxic smoke over the city.
At the same time, many still welcome the targeted assassination of regime leaders blamed for past atrocities, such as top security official Ali Larijani, a key figure in the January massacre.
I also spoke to an Iranian American (who requested anonymity) to hear their thoughts as a member of the diaspora. They said that for Iranians in the diaspora, the fall of the regime is not a question of if but when. They said that Iranian Americans, regardless of party affiliation and including many opponents of Trump, appreciated that Trump intervened despite the risks. They said that the greatest fear of many of them is that Trump does not complete the job of toppling the regime, as the regime has grown even more hard-line since the start of the war.
They mentioned that they had to constantly live with the fact that if they were in Iran, they would likely be among the many young people killed by the regime and, therefore, they have an obligation to speak up for them. They pointed to the recent execution of a young Iranian wrestler as an attempt by the regime to spread fear, given wrestlers’ heroic status in Iranian culture.
Ultimately, while the outcome of the war is unknown and the situation is rapidly changing, the death of Khamenei is a point of no return for Iran—the old status quo is gone, and the future is uncertain. Many Iranians hope that this moment leads to an opportunity for the people to take control of their destiny, something they have been deprived of for nearly a half-century, and steer their nation toward a brighter future.